Utah election results

November 13, 2016    By: Matt W. @ 8:43 am   Category: Life

Alot of people are bothered that Trump won Utah. A couple things to keep an eye on.

In 2012, Romney won Utah with 740k votes. In 2016, Trump won with 375k. In 2012, a million people voted, in 2016, only 700k did.

So the reality is that trump did 50% worse than Romney,  and the top drop in support came from disenfranchised voters who didn’t vote for anyone.

If we estimate Utah voting population growth for the past 4 years at 2% a year (which per the census would be very conservative)  This would mean almost 400k people who would have voted, based on 2012 rates, didn’t. This is more votes than trump received.

So the Utah reality is that Trump won for a number of factors, but none of those factors was massive Mormon support for him.

13 Comments »

  1. I’m too lazy right now to do the analysis, but a county-by-county comparison of election results to LDS membership proportion in each county may reveal whether Trump support in Utah came mostly from Gentiles or mostly from Saints. Mormon support may not have been massive, as you say, but could be overwhelming.

    Comment by Paul — November 13, 2016 @ 10:49 am

  2. And let’s be honest…the “disenfranchised voters who didn’t vote for anyone” includes those who voted for someone other than Trump or Clinton. If ever a third party candidate were going to have a chance, this election would have been it. Two incredibly unpopular mainstream choices and still no third party candidate came close to getting a single electoral vote. I know what President Benson said about having a good conscience after voting, but a vote for a third party IS as good as staying home on election day.

    Comment by Bryan — November 13, 2016 @ 12:23 pm

  3. Bryan, I disagree. I cast a third party vote, because I could not bring myself to vote for Clinton, & I refused to vote for the bully. My conscience is clear; I voted for the best candidate I could find, whihc is not at all the same thing as staying home. I tried tomake a difference, with a better candidate. I do find it revealing, talking with others, who did the same thing. The third party vote took Utah away from Clinton & handed it to Trump.

    Comment by Marivene — November 13, 2016 @ 6:39 pm

  4. The third party vote absolutely did not take Utah away from Clinton. Remember that her husband placed third in UT when he ran. Support for Clintons in Utah is very weak. I think many of the third party voters would have voted for Trump in a binary choice election. He was very close to 50% anyway, so he would have only needed a few more votes.

    Comment by el oso — November 13, 2016 @ 7:57 pm

  5. el oso, I can only speak for myself & for the friends with whom I spoke. You are free to “think” that many of the thrid party voters would have voted for Trump in a binary choice, but as one of the third party voters, I can tell you that would never have happened. There were 12 of us, that I am aware of, who seriously considered holding our noses & voting for Hillary, & who would NOT vote for Trump – period. Never. I freely admit that we were livid when the votes Cruz won in Utah, due to our hard work, were handed to Trump at the RNC. I am not sure where my new political home will be, but I am no longer Republican, & that is laid at the feet of the RNC & the Utah GOP caucus system. My party marched over a cliff, I refused to follow, & I am by no means alone. Trump is the president-elect, God help us, & I will pray that the Lord will help him, but I did not, nor will I ever, vote for Trump.

    Comment by Marivene — November 13, 2016 @ 8:07 pm

  6. Yeah, I voted third party as well. There’s a lot of folks out there who don’t understand how difficult this election was for many of us LDS conservative types — even for many of those who ended up voting for Trump.

    Comment by Jack — November 14, 2016 @ 2:57 am

  7. Among the many places to blame for Trump’s election was the Democratic Party’s inability to not put up Clinton as their candidate. I looked up recent Democratic governors who had been elected by their states to a second term; there are about nine of them who are still younger than 70. Some of them were elected in states like Wyoming, Montana, and Oklahoma. Most of the nine would have beat Trump, including in Utah; none would have fared worse than Clinton in a general election. Both parties would improve our presidential elections if they aimed to reduce the advantage of pre-existing name recognition in their nomination processes.

    The recent Democratic governors: Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, John Baldacci of Maine, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, Brian Schweitzer of Montana, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Christine Gregoire of Washington, Jim Doyle of Wisconsin, Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming.

    Comment by John Mansfield — November 14, 2016 @ 6:54 am

  8. And John Lynch of New Hampshire.

    Comment by John Mansfield — November 14, 2016 @ 6:57 am

  9. The only real conclusion from this list of non-sequiturs is the following: Utah supported Romney more than they supported Trump. That’s it. The concluding sentence cannot be supported.

    I understand the need to distance the Mormon community from the election of Trump, but this is poorly done here.

    Comment by Manuel Villalobos — November 15, 2016 @ 9:04 am

  10. Manuel,

    The real conclusion is that Utah supported Romney by *double* the number of votes that they did for Trump. That speaks volumes, IMO.

    Comment by Jack — November 18, 2016 @ 2:47 am

  11. Yes, voting totals were lower, as one would expect, but if you look at county-by-county totals, as well as exit polling, it is apparent that Mormons voted overwhelmingly for Trump, although not as overwhelmingly as for Romney. Duh. Salt Lake and Summit counties, where the non-LDS population is higher, voted for Clinton. Utah, Davis, Weber, Cache, and especially Washington counties voted overwhelmingly for Trump. What this means to me is that any moral superiority Mormons have claimed in the past is now totally shot to smithereens. They voted for a sexual predator, business fraud, and racist over one of their own (McMullin). Sad.

    Comment by Wally — December 1, 2016 @ 10:08 am

  12. I was for Trump right from the beginning. For one thing I believe much of the negative press he received was exaggeration or even lies depending on the case.
    there was no way in Hades I was going to vote for the wicked witch of the west. I think she is pure evil. compared to her Bill, and Obumma are saints.
    I guess one of the reasons I voted for my “friend” Donald is, That I “knew” he would win. I have premonitions and the Spirit told me the Trump would win the election.
    that having been said, you can laugh me off as increase.
    Ps. for what it’s worth. I read that Trump had found Jesus. I am LDS so I don’t know what to make of that.

    Comment by Fred Jepson — December 19, 2016 @ 9:40 am

  13. I was for Trump right from the beginning. For one thing I believe much of the negative press he received was exaggeration or even lies depending on the case.
    there was no way in Hades I was going to vote for the wicked witch of the west. I think she is pure evil. compared to her Bill, and Obumma are saints.
    I guess one of the reasons I voted for my “friend” Donald is, That I “knew” he would win. I have premonitions and the Spirit told me the Trump would win the election.
    that having been said, you can laugh me off as increase.
    Ps. for what it’s worth. I read that Trump had found Jesus. I am LDS so I don’t know what to make of that.
    I had been a big Romney supporter in the past but would have been torn if he had run in this last election.

    Comment by Fred Jepson — December 19, 2016 @ 9:43 am

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